Hi there guys,
Welcome back to my weekly rants. Decided to add some info that should be pretty useful to your daily trading, thanks to the comments of u/Neokill1
If you have not read the rest of the series, I recommend you take your time and read those before continuing with this piece (check my user activity and scroll down...)
This rant is based on this little comment I posted on the last post: Price moves because of the imbalance between buying and selling. This happens all the time. Price move where liquidity is, and that seeking of liquidity makes the price to go up and down. Why price extends on a particular direction? Because longer term players decide it. So the idea behind what I'm writing about is to follow that longer-term trend, taking advantage of a counter-trend wave that is looking for intra-day liquidity. If I'm bullish on the week, I want to pair my buying with intra-day selling. Because I expect longer-term traders to push price by buying massively. And instead of riding a big wave, I want to ride that push and get out before it retraces.
And also answers to this: why for example would it make sense to draw support/resistance lines on a EUUSD chart? Why would anyone "support" the price of a spread? What are you predicting to happen by drawing those lines, that someone will exchange their currency there simply because it's the same price they exchanged it for in the past and that number is special to them? A good question that deserves an answer
That question is a pretty good one, and one any trader worth of that name should ask himself why. Why price reacts the way it does? Why price behaves in predetermined ways? Why if I draw a line or area on specific candle places, I expect the price to react?
And the answer is simple and at the same time kinda complicated and fascinating. Why price rallies and rallies andd rallies and then suddenly it stops at a point ,and reverses? . The answer is , because there are sellers at that point. There is liquidity there. There is people at that point that decided it was worth to sell enough to reverse that rally.
All the market does is to put together buyers and sellers. If you want to buy something at some price, someone must agree with you. If no ones agrees, then you will have to offer more. When buyers and sellers agree on similar terms, price is stable. Buying and selling happens on a tight range, because both consider that particular price range worth.
But then, perhaps, someone wants to buy big. And there are not enough sellers. This big boy will dry the available liquidity , and it is hungry for more. So price will move from a balanced state to an imbalanced state. This imbalance in volume between buyers and sellers will cause the price to move up, taking all available liquidity till the monster is satiated. Then the exhaustion of bids, or buying, will cause the price to reverse to a point where buying interest is back.
The same applies for selling activity. The main take away you should get from this is simply that the market keeps moving from balance to imbalance to balance to imbalance all the time. And the points where the big bois deploy this activity of buying , of selling, of protecting levels, of slowly entering the markets, are mostly predetermined. Surprised? Most of the institutional activity happens at : 00 ,20, 50 and 80 levels.
So why drawing a line makes sense? It makes sense because when price stalls at some point, is because sellers or buyers stepped in and stopped the movement. Its a level where something interesting is happening.
It's a level where liquidity was present, and the question is, what is going to happen the next time price touches the area? Is someone stepping in to buy or sell at this point? Or perharps the first touch dried the liquidity, and there is nothing preventing price from going up again??
Lets see a real example of a trade I took today on GBPUSD, where I analyze step by step the balance and imbalance of the market liquidity in real time at those levels. The only way to see this is usingfutures. Because forex is a decentralized market and blah blah blah, and futures are centralized so you can see the volume, the limit orders through the DOM and blah blah blah....
So first things first, read well this articule : https://optimusfutures.com/tradeblog/archives/order-flow-trading
Understand well what is said there. Take it easy. Take your time. And then come back to me.
If you have followed my work, you know how I like to ride the market. I want a retracement on the most liquid moment in the market - the NY-London Overlap, and I need a daily BIAS on the pair.
For today, I'm bullish on the GBPUSD.
So lets check the pics. https://imgur.com/a/kgev9lT
The areas you see marked on the 30 min charts are based on the price relationships that happened last Friday. As you can see, those areas are always in a place where price stalled, retraced, pushed through,came back to the area and reacted in some way. Are those black magic? Why price reacts so smoothly today on them? Ah you Criptochihuahua, this is 20/20 insight, you are lying....
Those points are marked before today's open, simply because of the price relationship I described earlier. And if you remember the earlier rant, price stalls in there because sellers or buyers were present.
So I would expect that the levels are still interesting, and we should be watching carefully how price reacts in real time.
Now, today I got at 1.2680 and got out at 1.2725. Let's check the 2nd pic
, keep following the narrative with your own charts.
What you are seeing is the first touch at the big figure with the total volume chart, and the bid/ask order flow chart. You can see how the price is pulled toward that level through the exhaustion of offers being filled. You can see how exactly they are depleted at 15:51. Why? Because at the next min, you can see how there are no offers being filled, compared to the bids.
Remember, when offers are getting filled , price pulls up. When the bids are predominantly being filled, price is pulled down.
And also take a look on the volume. This is key. If an imbalance is to happen, is because there should be a huge difference between bids and asks. Good volume on such a level, good sign. Price hugging the level without good volume, the level will most likely be broken. Look at the next pic.
See the price behavior in combination with the volume? Price is hugging the level on low volume. Great signal. That means the level is not that greatly defended, at this point.
What are we looking for? We are looking for the bids to be exhausted at our next level with a good volume reaction. Watch what happens. Next pic is our retracement
, and we are watching carefully. And look at that beauty. Do you see the volume? Do you see the bids exhaustion? Do you see how the market orders are getting absorbed by the limit orders at that point? Someone does not want the price to go down. Price jumps as a result. It does not huge the level. Do you see? I'm all in, I want to take part of this trade. But wait, there is more.... look at the next pic
, because you yet have another opportunity to get into this train.... at 17:23.. Even a bigger reaction, while on the other side.... we got more hugging...
No more pics for today. You see what happens next. The level gets broken and price rallies to take the previous day high. Trade was a success.
So I hope this added some value, and explained why drawing lines is useful, and how levels are indeed defended. P.S - I lied: Extra Pic
, you got a VWAP chart with Standard Deviations. You can see how the pullback nicely fits in our long framework as well and adds confluence to the trade. Research about this :)
A Bid/Ask spread exists in virtually every freely traded market. In currencies for example, if you receive a quote for a EUR/USD currency pair of $1.2750/52, the first figure is the “Bid” price of $1.2750, the second figure is the “Ask” price, and the net of the two, $0.0002, is equivalent to a spread of 2 “pips” in forex slang. In a market that is moving quickly upward or downward ... bid-ask spread; bid-offer spread; or usually just the spread; How to read a Quote. Forex quotes will sometimes just display the bid price, and the last digits of the ask price. For example, if the bid price for EURUSD is 1.1200 and the ask price is 1.1205 the short version will be quoted as: EURUSD 1.1200 / 05. This quote means you can buy at 1.1205 and sell at 1.1200. Looking at it from the ... The Forex bid & ask spread represents the difference between the purchase and the sale rates. This signifies the expected profit of the online Forex Trading transaction. The value of Bid/Ask Spread is set by the liquidity of a stock. If the stock is highly liquid, it means many stock units are being bought and sold, and the Forex bid/ask spread will be lower. Traders prefer foreign currency ... As you can see, the bid/ask spread tightened from $0.60 to only $0.04. The next question is… What Happens When Bid And Ask Are Far Apart? Well, at some point either the buyers or the sellers need to make another offer. Either the buyers need to raise their bid, or the sellers have to lower their ask. Otherwise, no trade would take place. Bid and Asked: ‘Bid and Ask’ is a two-way price quotation that indicates the best price at which a security can be sold and bought at a given point in time. The bid price represents the ... Forex ask vs bid price explained By http://www.forexblacklist.com Most company stocks, that are household names, trade with a small Bid Ask Spread of (usually) one cent if the stock is priced below $100. Heavily traded forex pairs will typically have a Bid Ask Spread of 2 pips or less with most brokers. In figure 2 the spread is less than half a pip. Take Advantage of the Bid Ask Spread The bid ask spread for most pairs is considerably larger during the three hours immediately after the New York session; Always check the bid ask spread before placing a trade; I hope this lesson has helped you to better understand the Forex bid ask spread as well as when to take extra care and watch for larger-than-usual spreads. Bid-Ask Spread. A full quotation is made up of 2 prices called the Bid and the Ask. The difference between these two prices is referred to as the 'spread'. The spread is essentially the profit a broker or bank makes for you to enter the trade (your transactional cost). The wider the spread the more expensive it is for you to trade, whereas the ... Bid and Ask Quotes . There are two parts to a forex quote, a bid and an ask. Here's another forex quote that helps make clear the meaning of these terms in the forex market: EUR/USD = 1.3600/05 Here the bid is 1.3600, and the ask is 1.3605. Since the difference between a bid and an ask price in normal circumstances is a very small fraction ...
What is Bid/Ask Spread - Explaining Bid Price, Ask Price, and Spread http://www.financial-spread-betting.com/Stock-market-workings.html PLEASE LIKE AND SHARE... This video explains pricing for the Forex markets, and the difference between Bid and ask / offer prices. A lesson on the two way quote in forex trading referred to as the bid ask spread and what this means to us as traders of the forex market. Loading... Autoplay When autoplay is enabled, a suggested ... Learn what is BID and ASK price on Forex. Negotiation Skills: Former FBI Negotiator Chris Voss At The Australia Real Estate Conference - Duration: 45:53. The Black Swan Group Recommended for you http://www.capexforextrading.com/forex-brokers-software We discuss the difference between the bid and the ask and guide you through an example of spreads. Re...